Experts are weighing in on the recent heavy rainfall that drenched the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and caused chaos in Dubai. Despite some claims, meteorologists believe that cloud seeding did not play a role in the intense downpour.
Cloud seeding is a weather modification technique that has been around for decades. It involves introducing particles, often silver iodide, into clouds to enhance rainfall. However, meteorologists like Ryan Maue, former chief scientist at the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, argue that cloud seeding couldn't possibly cause such extreme rainfall. Maue stated, “It’s most certainly not cloud seeding. You can’t create rain out of thin air and get 6 inches of water. That’s akin to perpetual motion technology.”
The extreme rainfall experienced in Dubai was forecasted days in advance and is believed to be linked to human-caused climate change. Tomer Burg, an atmospheric science researcher, pointed out that computer models predicted several inches of rain six days before the event. Michael Mann, a climate scientist from the University of Pennsylvania, emphasized that blaming cloud seeding ignores these forecasts and the actual causes of the extreme weather.
There is also skepticism about the effectiveness of cloud seeding. While some studies suggest a potential increase in precipitation due to aerial seeding, the results remain inconclusive. “The physics makes sense, but the results have been so small that scientists just can’t agree on whether it really works,” explained Maue.
Despite uncertainties about its effectiveness, governments in drought-prone regions like the U.S. West and the UAE continue to invest in cloud seeding technology in hopes of boosting water supplies. For instance, Utah reported a 12% increase in its water supply in 2018, attributing it to cloud seeding.
So, what caused the recent deluge in Dubai? Experts note that such intense storms are not uncommon for the region. Suzanne Gray, a meteorology professor from the University of Reading, cited a study that analyzed nearly 100 extreme storm events over the southern Arabian Peninsula between 2000 and 2020. These findings suggest that such extreme weather events may become even more frequent in a warming world.
In conclusion, while cloud seeding may have some marginal effects on rainfall, it is unlikely to cause the kind of extreme rainfall witnessed in Dubai. As Maue aptly put it, “When it comes to controlling individual rain storms, we are not anywhere close.”